by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2024-09-05 19:09:44
On Thursday, the NFL regular season is BACK! Of course, that means that survivor pools, pick’em pools, and confidence pools are also back. The good news is that RotoGrinders has you covered heading into Week 1.
In fact, you can join these contests and win real money at Splash Sports, including a season-long confidence pool with $100K in prizes guaranteed. Click here to sign up!
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top-6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended last season on a high note, with our top-6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends once again.
Below, we have our Week 1 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 1 Confidence Rankings
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning for all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 1 Selections
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Detroit Lions
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Indianapolis Colts
9. Cleveland Browns
10. Atlanta Falcons
11. Las Vegas Raiders
12. Minnesota Vikings
13. Tennessee Titans
14. Washington Commanders
15. Green Bay Packers
16. New York Jets
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 1
Bengals (vs. Patriots)
According to Clevta, home teams favored by between 6-10 points are 229-73-1 (75.8%) SU since the beginning of 2018. Though there are concerns about Cincinnati’s defense and Joe Burrow playing in his first regular season game since suffering a major injury, there is little doubt that they are the more talented team in this matchup. They also have a healthy level of coaching continuity, with Zac Taylor returning as the team’s head coach and Lou Anarumo back to run the defense.
Meanwhile, New England will play a regular season contest without Bill Belichick on the sidelines for the first time this century. The team has a new starting quarterback, head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator entering 2024. They also lost edge rusher Matthew Judon to the Falcons this past offseason and will be without defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who led New England in sacks last fall. Getting pressure on Burrow is likely to be a significant challenge.
Simply, there is a reason that the Bengals are favored by 8.5 points here. Whether or not Cincinnati can cover a large number is a different question – but they should be able to come away with a win here. From a probabilistic perspective, there is no reason to pick against an 8.5-point favorite in pick’em contests in Week 1, anyway.
Bills (vs. Cardinals)
This weekend, Buffalo will be without arguably their most important defensive player, linebacker Matt Milano, which unquestionably hurts. However, even after Milano and DaQuan Jones suffered Week 5 injuries in 2023, the Bills defense managed to be a top-half unit in DVOA, EPA/play, and success rate for the remainder of the regular season. Heading into Week 1, Buffalo will at least have Jones back. He is flanked by other capable players on the defensive line and is supported on the outside by one of the better coverage cornerback tandems in the NFL. Oh, and let’s not forget that quarterback Josh Allen returns, who has finished top-four in EPA/play and success rate among qualified signal callers in back-to-back seasons entering 2024.
On the other side of this matchup, the Cardinals are fresh off of a disappointing 4-13 season in which they went 2-7 on the road and had the 5th-worst point differential in the entire league. Even after Kyler Murray returned in November, the team went 3-5. Their defense finished the year ranked 32nd in DVOA, 31st in EPA/play, and 32nd in success rate, and they failed to add any significant playmakers on that side of the ball this past offseason.
Much has been made about the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but Buffalo is undeniably still the more talented team in this matchup. They should be able to consistently win at the line of scrimmage on Sunday against Arizona, which should give them a good chance to come away with a win in their season opener.
Seahawks (vs. Broncos)
Per Stathead, since 2000, there have been 19 rookie quarterbacks to make their first career NFL start on the road. In those 19 games, those teams starting a rookie signal caller are 6-13 SU. The 6 wins have come against the:
2011 Browns (4-12)
2010 Lions (6-10)
2015 Buccaneers (6-10)
2001 Vikings (5-11)
2009 Texans (9-7)
2012 Saints (7-9)
In short, all but one of those victories came against teams that ended the season below .500. Seattle is coming off a 9-win season and has a Vegas win total price at over/under 8 wins at Caesars Sportsbook heading into 2024. While they don’t qualify as a superteam by any means, they are certainly a playoff contender.
Denver has a challenging task in front of them on Sunday, playing a superior opponent in a hostile environment, with a rookie playing in his first regular season NFL action. Seattle should be able to get the job done in this spot.
Lions (vs. Rams)
The Rams were a 10-7 playoff team in 2023, but they likely overperformed their deserved record. They were outside the top 10 in point differential in the NFL, ranking 17th in total DVOA, and enter the new season without defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who retired this past offseason.
Detroit has their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, starting quarterback, and their entire core group of contributors returning for 2024. They also get to play this game at home, where they went 6-2 last fall. As long as we don’t get any surprises on the end-of-week injury report, there is little debate as to which of these teams is more talented heading into this Sunday Night Football matchup.
Chiefs (vs. Ravens)
Despite winning a Super Bowl last year, Kansas City’s roster was far from perfect. They had major issues at the tackle positions on the offensive line, and Patrick Mahomes had a rather underwhelming season – at least by his standards. Mahomes’ relative struggles were driven, in large part, by a receiver room that failed to generate consistent separation. Well, Rashee Rice is now going to be a sophom*ore and the Chiefs added speedster Xavier Worthy as an electric deep threat, which is something the team has sorely missed since trading away Tyreek Hill. They also added Samaje Perine, who is an upgraded pass-catcher out of the backfield, so the offense should be better in 2024.
However, the biggest reason to like the Chiefs in this spot is simply that the Ravens have undeniably lost talent. On Thursday, Baltimore will be starting at least 3 new offensive linemen – and possibly 2 rookies. They lost their star defensive coordinator, who left to become the head coach in Seattle. Their talented defense also lost their No. 2 leading tackler, Patrick Queen, and Jadeveon Clowney, who had 9.5 sacks in 2023. Lamar Jackson is a phenomenal talent, but this is a tall task, asking him to get a win in Arrowhead on opening night with all of the turnover on this roster.
Image Credit: Getty Images
