Nature Climate Change - Debating coral futures (2024)

Science-based principles for corporate climate transition risk quantification

Currently, no comprehensive scientific methodology of corporate risk quantification, in response to new disclosure regulations, has been proposed in the literature. Here we develop fundamental principles that are important for the appropriate use of climate scenario science in transition risk assessments.

• Fouad Khan
• Edward Byers
• Keywan Riahi

Coral reefs deserve evidence-based management not heroic interference

Climate impacts are triggering a host of novel bio- and geoengineering interventions to save coral reefs. This Comment challenges heroic scientific assumptions and advocates for a more systemic, evidence-based approach to caring for coral reefs.

• Robert P. Streit
• Tiffany H. Morrison
• David R. Bellwood

Ecological replacement for reef-building corals

Reef-building corals are declining globally, putting important ecosystem services at risk. Here we discuss the potential risks and benefits of coral ecological replacement, in which new species are introduced to replace the functional roles of species that have declined or disappeared.

• Michael M. Webster
• Daniel E. Schindler

Reconsidering and rescaling climate change predictions for coral reefs

Coral reefs are at risk from ongoing climate change. We can best serve the reefs by invoking realistic scenarios, empiricism, artificial intelligence and falsification to self-correct the current scientific limits that hinder climate science predictions, communication and policies.

• Timothy Rice McClanahan

Managerial and financial barriers

• Lingxiao Yan

Changing the Earth’s tune

• Jasper Franke

Biased reports of species range shifts

• Tegan Armarego-Marriott

Interventions in education

• Danyang Cheng

Explaining green industrial policy in an age of globalization

Governments are increasingly using industrial policy to develop low-carbon economic sectors and catalyse the energy transition. A recent study provides a framework to explain why governments adopt different types of green industrial policy, depending on industry position in the global supply chain and types of uncertainty.

• Jessica F. Green

Tree movements promote carbon sink

Climate change threatens the role of forests as long-term carbon sinks. Tree planting programmes that incorporate assisted migration of tree species and seed sources can help to mitigate this impact.

• John Pedlar

Enhanced policy adequacy facilitates national climate adaptation tracking across Africa

Inadequate information in national adaptation policies limits the ability to track national adaptation progress in Africa. Enhancing coverage, consistency and robustness of these policies offers a clear path to establish effective, nationally led adaptation-tracking infrastructure.

• Andreea C. Nowak
• Lucy Njuguna
• Todd S. Rosenstock

Biodiversity reduces the advancement of leaf green-up with climate warming

Analysis of 393,139 forest inventory plots shows that increased biodiversity weakens the sensitivity of spring leaf-out dates to warming, possibly owing to diversity-driven changes in root depth and soil biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes, among potential mechanisms.

Wheat breeding strategies for increased climate resilience

The growth and yield of 3,652 wheat genotypes under past and simulated future climates indicate that adaptation to a wide range of environments will decrease by 8.7% for each 1°C of warming. Thus, future breeding strategies must deliver genetically diverse elite lines that can adapt to the warmer conditions and likely more diverse weather scenarios caused by climate variance.

Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases

Both extreme weather events and long-term gradual changes drive human migration, which could aggravate the burden of infectious diseases. This Perspective examines the complex interplay between climate change, migration and infectious diseases then advocates for context-specific adaptations.

• Joseph L.-H. Tsui
• Rosario Evans Pena
• Prathyush Sambaturu

Limits on modelling the thermal sensitivity of Wolbachia

• Perran A. Ross
• Ary A. Hoffmann

A decrease in radiative forcing and equivalent effective chlorine from hydrochlorofluorocarbons

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons are important ozone-depleting substances. Here the authors show that the radiative forcing and equivalent effective chlorine from hydrochlorofluorocarbons has decreased in recent years, 5 years earlier than expected.

• Luke M. Western
• John S. Daniel
• Stephen A. Montzka

Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world

Regional marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed as a form of geoengineering. Here the authors show that a regional MCB aiming to reduce warming in the Western United States under today’s conditions would be less efficient under warmer conditions and would exaggerate warming in other regions.

• Jessica S. Wan
• Chih-Chieh Jack Chen
• Katharine Ricke

Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century

How the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under sustained warming beyond the year 2100 is not well known. Here the authors show that while ENSO variability will exhibit diverse changes in the short term, continued warming will lead to a consistent decrease in variability in the long term.

• Qihua Peng
• Shang-Ping Xie
• Clara Deser

Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake

The Southern Ocean takes up substantial amounts of heat and carbon. Here the authors show that it has historically accounted for a much greater proportion of global ocean heat uptake—and link this to aerosols depressing uptake in northern oceans—but that future heat and carbon uptake will become more comparable.

• Richard G. Williams
• Andrew J. S. Meijers
• Pietro Salvi

Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes

The changing climate threatens water quality in lakes, particularly oxygen levels. Here the authors present evidence for northern lakes of rapidly reducing oxygen levels, mainly driven by longer stratification in the warm season, with implications for lake ecosystems.

• Joachim Jansen
• Gavin L. Simpson
• Yves T. Prairie

Sea-level rise causes shorebird population collapse before habitats drown

The authors combine field data with models of coastal geomorphology and bird behaviour and dynamics to understand the impact of sea-level rise on shorebird populations. They show that habitat quality is already declining and that the current focus on habitat quantity loss can underestimate threats.

• Martijn van de Pol
• Liam D. Bailey
• Bruno J. Ens

Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change

Assisted migration is the artificial movement of species and populations to increase forest resilience. Here the authors model how targeted assisted migration can preserve or enhance the European forest carbon sink under future climate scenarios.

• Debojyoti Chakraborty
• Albert Ciceu
• Silvio Schueler

Decadal increases in carbon uptake offset by respiratory losses across northern permafrost ecosystems

The future of carbon dynamics in the northern high latitudes is uncertain yet represents an important potential feedback under climate change. This study uses a comprehensive observational dataset to show an increasing carbon sink in non-permafrost systems; in permafrost systems uptake was offset by loss.

• Craig R. See
• Anna-Maria Virkkala
• Edward A. G. Schuur

Biodiversity buffers the response of spring leaf unfolding to climate warming

The authors combine 393,139 forest inventory plots with satellite data to understand the impact of biodiversity on the sensitivity of spring leaf-out dates to temperature (S_T). They show that high diversity significantly weakens S_T, a relationship that Earth system models largely fail to reproduce.

• Pengju Shen
• Xiaoyue Wang
• Chaoyang Wu

New wheat breeding paradigms for a warming climate

Given the importance of crop breeding and adaptation for future food security, the authors investigate yield response of wheat cultivars under warming. They find low adaptation to recent warming and low phenotype stability across environments, with further reductions expected under future climates.

• Wei Xiong
• Matthew P. Reynolds
• Feng Chen

Opportunities to strengthen Africa’s efforts to track national-level climate adaptation

Tracking adaptation requires countries’ commitments as the baseline for measuring future progress. By analysing 65 African national adaptation documents, this research finds that most countries fail to provide internally consistent and operational plans, while efforts towards adequacy exist.

• Andreea C. Nowak
• Lucy Njuguna
• Todd S. Rosenstock

Author Correction: Current national proposals are off track to meet carbon dioxide removal needs

• William F. Lamb
• Thomas Gasser
• Jan C. Minx

Author Correction: Historical impacts of grazing on carbon stocks and climate mitigation opportunities

• Shuai Ren
• César Terrer
• Dan Liu