Righthander Wikelman Gonzalez, the top pitching prospect in the system entering the year, allowed 35 runs through 36 innings to start his Double A season while walking or hitting nearly as many batters (35) as he struck out (36). He’s been limited in the last four weeks to roughly 50 pitches while moving between the bullpen and rotation as the Sox have tried to help him restore his stuff.
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Against that backdrop, how do the Sox assess what they’ve seen with their pitching development in the first half of the season?
“I’d say it’s trending positively,” said farm director Brian Abraham.
Abraham cited the breakthrough by Perales — who, thanks to the development of a cutter and sharpening of his splitter/changeup and slider, had cracked top-100 prospect lists for the first time just prior to his injury — as a case where the organization could see a talented young player taking appreciable steps forward. There are other examples.
“I think what you are seeing is guys developing optimally, developing to be the best version of themselves, understanding what is going to allow them to have success,” said Abraham. “There’s some risk involved with that. There’s some failure involved in that. There’s some development backwards that’s involved with that failure. But I think you’re also seeing a lot of successes in some of the guys that probably we weren’t talking about a couple years ago that are trending upwards.”
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That’s been particularly true of pitchers in the lower levels. In addition to Perales, the Sox have seen starter potential in lefthander Connelly Early in High-A (32 percent strikeout rate, 15th-highest among minor leaguers with at least 60 innings), David Sandlin (37 percent strikeout rate in 25 innings for the pitcher acquired from the Royals in the John Schreiber trade), 6-foot-7-inch righthander Blake Wehunt (32 percent strikeout rate), and righthander Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (29 percent strikeout rate, 49 percent ground-ball rate for the 20-year-old).
For some, improvement has come with more velocity and strength. For others, it’s been a question of tweaking pitch usage. For others, it’s been pitch development.
There’s potential risk associated with any of those types of improvement. But the Sox have seen enough improvement of arsenals, especially in the lower levels, to insist that their pitching pipeline is growing stronger — even if that improvement is more likely to be felt in the future.
“There’s a lot to improve upon,” said Abraham. “I think the biggest thing was creating a more consistent system in place with our pitching groups and processes, where guys know what they’re working on, what they need to work on to improve, and what we’re trying to get to. That takes time.”
Of course, that time also means that there’s a gap in the pitching pipeline. While Richard Fitts (acquired in the Alex Verdugo trade) is positioning himself as a potential contributor this year, the absence of upper-levels pitching depth suggests the Sox — absent a trade or free agent signing this offseason — likely will need to continue to patch holes to supply big league pitching depth in 2024 and ‘25.
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Here’s a look at some of the key developments in the Red Sox system last week:
Triple A Worcester: 3-3 last week, 41-45 overall
According to Tommy Cassell of the Worcester Telegram & Gazette, lefthander Zach Penrod topped out at 94 miles per hour in a recent 40-pitch live batting practice session. He could be nearing a return after next week’s All-Star break.
Catcher/first baseman Nathan Hickey is having a grim start to July, struggling to put the bat on the ball. Though he walked five times last week, he went 0 for 10 with six strikeouts, and swung and missed on 14 of his 21 swings. For the year, Hickey is hitting .207/.333/.376 with a career-high 33 percent strikeout rate, a surprising struggle for a player who entered the year regarded as one of the better pure hitters in the system.
Double A Portland: 4-1 last week, 43-36 overall
Big Three update: Anthony (ranked the No. 1 Red Sox prospect by Baseball America) hit .200/.292/.500 with a pair of homers. Mayer (No. 2) missed four games with back stiffness but returned at the end of the weekend with a 1-for-4 game that included a walk. Teel (No. 3) went 4 for 15 with a .267/.353/.400 line.
Update on the craziest performance subset in the system: Corner infielder Blaze Jordan is now 22 for 44 with a .500/.521/.864 line and no strikeouts in 48 plate appearances against lefties this year.
High-A Greenville: 4-2 last week, 34-47 overall
Outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia continued to rake since his promotion, going 5 for 13 with a home run. He has a ridiculous 11 homers in 28 games with the Drive. For the year, he’s hitting .293/.375/.606 with 16 homers, tied for second-most in the minors among players who are 21 or younger.
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Righthander Yordanny Monegro, whose season was delayed by a need to build shoulder strength, has been unable to build on his excellent 2023. In just 22 innings, the 21-year-old has allowed 24 runs and seven homers, totals surpassing his yield across three levels in 65⅔ innings in 2023.
Outfielder Allan Castro, a 21-year-old who scouts describe as one of the best athletes in the system, had his first career multihomer game last Tuesday. Both homers for the switch-hitter came while batting lefthanded, continuing a pattern: He’s hitting .234/.378/.416 against righties and just .193/.281/.281 against lefties.
Single A Salem: 3-3 last week, 41-40 overall
Middle infielder Yoeilin Cespedes, who had yet to get in a game since his promotion last month, has been diagnosed with a hamate fracture in his left hand that will likely require surgery. Assuming he has the hamate removed, his season could be over, though the 18-year-old would likely be at full health for fall instructional work.
Though 23-year-old lefthander Noah Dean is old for the Carolina League, his performance has been intriguing. Last week, he tossed five no-hit innings with seven strikeouts, marking the fourth time this year he hasn’t given up a hit in a start. (Three of those starts have been five-inning efforts, and one was a four-inning outing.) The 2022 fifth-rounder has a 3.38 ERA, but a 1.46 mark since the beginning of June.
Florida Complex League: 4-2 last week, 26-19 overall
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Starlyn Nuñez had a strong week, going 7 for 22 with three doubles and a triple (.318/.360/.545). The 18-year-old switch-hitter, who primarily plays third but has also seen time at second and short, has interesting offensive upside but had largely struggled this season.
Dominican Summer League red: 17-7 overall
Dominican Summer League blue: 9-14 overall
Though his performance has tailed off, 17-year-old first baseman/outfielder Justin Gonzales has mashed early in his first professional season, hitting .313/.394/.530 with two homers and 11 extra-base hits in 23 games.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.
